Shifting towards sustainable food consumption is a crucial measure for addressing the environmental and health challenges associated with conventional meat production. Nudging, a behavioral economics approach that subtly guides decision-making without restricting individual choice, has gained increasing attention as a potential strategy for promoting sustainable dietary behaviors. This study investigates the relative contribution of behavioral nudges, alongside psychological, demographic, and contextual factors, in predicting consumers' intention to adopt plant-based meat alternatives in Mashhad, a major city in the developing country of Iran. Using data from 478 consumers and applying a machine learning-based XGBoost framework combined with SHAP analysis, this research identifies the relative importance and direction of key predictors associated with adoption intention. The findings indicate that psychological factors represent the most important predictors of consumers’ intention, followed by demographic characteristics and environmental factors, whereas nudging interventions provide complementary predictive contributions. Among the examined nudging strategies, environmental nudges showed the highest relative contribution to model predictions, followed by health-environmental, social norm, and health nudges. These findings highlight the potential role of behavioral interventions as supportive tools within broader strategies aimed at encouraging sustainable food choices. Policymakers and stakeholders may benefit from integrating context-specific nudging approaches with educational and informational initiatives to facilitate consumer engagement with plant-based meat alternatives. Furthermore, the SHAP-XGBoost framework enhances the interpretability of complex consumer decision-making patterns by providing a data-driven approach for identifying the relative importance of behavioral, psychological, and demographic determinants.
From nudges to norms: Predicting plant-based meat adoption via explainable machine learning
Boccia F.
2026-01-01
Abstract
Shifting towards sustainable food consumption is a crucial measure for addressing the environmental and health challenges associated with conventional meat production. Nudging, a behavioral economics approach that subtly guides decision-making without restricting individual choice, has gained increasing attention as a potential strategy for promoting sustainable dietary behaviors. This study investigates the relative contribution of behavioral nudges, alongside psychological, demographic, and contextual factors, in predicting consumers' intention to adopt plant-based meat alternatives in Mashhad, a major city in the developing country of Iran. Using data from 478 consumers and applying a machine learning-based XGBoost framework combined with SHAP analysis, this research identifies the relative importance and direction of key predictors associated with adoption intention. The findings indicate that psychological factors represent the most important predictors of consumers’ intention, followed by demographic characteristics and environmental factors, whereas nudging interventions provide complementary predictive contributions. Among the examined nudging strategies, environmental nudges showed the highest relative contribution to model predictions, followed by health-environmental, social norm, and health nudges. These findings highlight the potential role of behavioral interventions as supportive tools within broader strategies aimed at encouraging sustainable food choices. Policymakers and stakeholders may benefit from integrating context-specific nudging approaches with educational and informational initiatives to facilitate consumer engagement with plant-based meat alternatives. Furthermore, the SHAP-XGBoost framework enhances the interpretability of complex consumer decision-making patterns by providing a data-driven approach for identifying the relative importance of behavioral, psychological, and demographic determinants.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
