Modelling the deployment of energy efficiency measures for the residential sector. The case of Italy

Energy efficiency has a pivotal role in the European Union energy strategy and the end use sector which is considered most attractive for energy savings is the building one. Within the building sector residential buildings have a large share, therefore the present study proposes an analysis of the energy efficiency opportunities in the Italian residential sector. To this aim a flexible model, applicable to other countries, is developed. The model offers a detailed picture of the Italian building stock which is described in terms of significant archetypes. The goal is the estimation of the energy/carbon/pollutants savings obtained when specific energy efficiency measures are applied. Four scenarios are simulated, namely the baseline, the energy policies in force and two more ambitious energy strategies. The model demonstrates that the current target of saving of 38.4 TWh within 2030 is achievable without a challenging effort. A more ambitious objective, namely 76.8 TWh of savings in 2030, can be realistically achieved but more radical renovation measures and a larger number of buildings should be targeted. If a substantial diffusion of heat-pumps is also considered the saving can increase up to 100 TWh.