What causes a country to be trapped in a Malthusian economy? This question has generated countless studies emphasizing different factors that are often assigned an important role in the emergence of modern growth, such as the relationship between demographic factors and changes in institutions that promote innovation, the production of new ideas, the development of education or improvements in technology. In this paper we examine a basic factor, the probability of child survival. The risk of premature death should impinge on fertility and is determined by fertility itself in certain contexts (technology, disease, land exploitation). Taking into account stochastic mortality, we find a negative relationship between child mortality and birth rate. Our results conflict with a number of published works which argue that with stochastic mortality a large precautionary demand for children arises, which would lead to mortality decline having a negative effect on net fertility.

Accounting for child mortality in the pre-industrial European economy

CHIARINI, Bruno;
2013

Abstract

What causes a country to be trapped in a Malthusian economy? This question has generated countless studies emphasizing different factors that are often assigned an important role in the emergence of modern growth, such as the relationship between demographic factors and changes in institutions that promote innovation, the production of new ideas, the development of education or improvements in technology. In this paper we examine a basic factor, the probability of child survival. The risk of premature death should impinge on fertility and is determined by fertility itself in certain contexts (technology, disease, land exploitation). Taking into account stochastic mortality, we find a negative relationship between child mortality and birth rate. Our results conflict with a number of published works which argue that with stochastic mortality a large precautionary demand for children arises, which would lead to mortality decline having a negative effect on net fertility.
File in questo prodotto:
Non ci sono file associati a questo prodotto.

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11367/51904
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus ND
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 0
social impact