The aim of this paper is to analyse the sustainability of public debt in Italy during the last 150 years (1861-2010) by employing a database containing several statistical novelties: new time series estimates of public debt and GDP (respectively Bank of Italy and Baffigi, 2011) and an original reconstruction of State revenues. The key economic indicators used include public debt, primary and total deficits, and nominal and real GDP rates of growth. Two main issues are addressed. First, we examine the size and dynamics of public finance aggregates in a long-term perspective, performing a detailed historical analysis to identify the determinants of public debt and its ratio to GDP. Second, following the approach proposed both by Bohn (1998, 2005) and Doi et al. (2011), we test for the sustainability of public debt in Italy, comparing four different historical periods.

The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in Italy (1861-2012)

BARTOLETTO, Silvana;CHIARINI, Bruno
;
MARZANO, ELISABETTA
2014

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyse the sustainability of public debt in Italy during the last 150 years (1861-2010) by employing a database containing several statistical novelties: new time series estimates of public debt and GDP (respectively Bank of Italy and Baffigi, 2011) and an original reconstruction of State revenues. The key economic indicators used include public debt, primary and total deficits, and nominal and real GDP rates of growth. Two main issues are addressed. First, we examine the size and dynamics of public finance aggregates in a long-term perspective, performing a detailed historical analysis to identify the determinants of public debt and its ratio to GDP. Second, following the approach proposed both by Bohn (1998, 2005) and Doi et al. (2011), we test for the sustainability of public debt in Italy, comparing four different historical periods.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11367/30634
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