A key problem in time series prediction using autoregressive models is to fix the model order, namely the number of past samples required to model the time series adequately. The estimation of the model order using cross-validation is a long process. In this paper we explore faster alternative to cross-validation, based on nonlinear dynamics methods, namely Grassberger-Procaccia, Kégl and False Nearest Neighbors algorithms. Once the model order is obtained, it is used to carry out the prediction, performed by a SVM. Experiments on three real data time series show that nonlinear dynamics methods have performances very close to the cross-validation ones.

SVM-based Time Series Prediction with Nonlinear Dynamics Methods

CAMASTRA, Francesco
;
2007

Abstract

A key problem in time series prediction using autoregressive models is to fix the model order, namely the number of past samples required to model the time series adequately. The estimation of the model order using cross-validation is a long process. In this paper we explore faster alternative to cross-validation, based on nonlinear dynamics methods, namely Grassberger-Procaccia, Kégl and False Nearest Neighbors algorithms. Once the model order is obtained, it is used to carry out the prediction, performed by a SVM. Experiments on three real data time series show that nonlinear dynamics methods have performances very close to the cross-validation ones.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11367/28586
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