The time series of German and Italian recessions are analyzed using a novel approach for binary time series introduced in Startz (2008). For the German recessions a purely autoregressive model for binary data has provided satisfactory results. For the Italian recessions, on the other hand, to reach a significant fit we have applied a model including some lags of the German driving economy. An interpretation in terms of short-run and long-run effects is proposed.

Modelling Recession in Two European Countries: the Generalized Binomial Heterogeneous Autoregressive Model

DE LUCA, GIOVANNI;
2014-01-01

Abstract

The time series of German and Italian recessions are analyzed using a novel approach for binary time series introduced in Startz (2008). For the German recessions a purely autoregressive model for binary data has provided satisfactory results. For the Italian recessions, on the other hand, to reach a significant fit we have applied a model including some lags of the German driving economy. An interpretation in terms of short-run and long-run effects is proposed.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11367/18042
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