Structural constraints and environmental convergence: multilevel governance and CO2 reduction in Italian provinces

This paper investigates whether Italian provinces converge toward national CO2reduction targets under a multilevel governance framework. Combining a theoretical model of provincial decision-making with Phillips and Sul’s club convergence method and multilevel regression controls, the study disentangles structural constraints from discretionary environmental behaviour. Results show that divergence largely reflects economic and institutional heterogeneity. Once adjusted, most provinces exhibit relative convergence, suggesting effective local strategies despite uneven starting conditions. These findings highlight the need for differentiated climate targets and tailored policy instruments to ensure a territorially balanced ecological transition. The analysis offers actionable insights for climate governance in decentralized systems.