The effects of sea level rise on Domitian coastal area around Volturno river mouth (Italy) in future scenarios

Sea level rise (SLR) is a global and progressive phenomenon that risks having adverse consequences on large coastal areas of the Earth. Caused mainly by the thermal expansion of sea water related to global warming and the melting of glaciers and polar ice caps, sea level rise is a significant aspect of climate change and can lead to consequences such as coastal flooding, erosion, saltwater intrusion and increased vulnerability of coastal zones. Italy, with its extensive coastline and low-lying coastal areas, is particularly at risk of the impacts of SLR, with potentially severe consequences for coastal cities and economic activity. Among the potentially most exposed coastal plains there is certainly the Domitian zone (Campania Region) due to the particular morphological condition characterized by a low and sandy coast followed by large flat areas. The availability of forecast data, such as those of the Copernicus databases, which identify future scenarios of SLR and the presence of versatile tools such as GIS (Geographic Information System) software make it possible and easy to map the areas at risk of flooding in the coming years. This article presents the results of a preliminary study carried out on the northern coastal strip of Campania, precisely the one delimited by the Domitian coast. For a first estimate of the potentially floodable areas in relation to different forecast scenarios represented by the Copernicus data, digital elevation models (DEMs) with a resolution of 20 m and 10 m are used, highlighting how the different level of detail of the altimetric information affects the mapping of the flooded zones and, therefore, the calculation of the areas at risk. Data for eight different scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100, each characterized by a different magnitude of the SLR phenomenon, are considered. All processing is carried out using Quantum GIS (QGIS) software, version 3.28. The experiments conducted highlight both the extreme vulnerability of the area under consideration due to its morphology (it lies within the broad Campanian plain that extends for many kilometers from the coast) and the strong variability of the results in relation to the geometric resolution of the DEM used.