GIS analysis for defining sea level rise effects on Sicily coasts for the end of the 21stcentury

Coastal regions around the world are experiencing the increasing threat of sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change. Predictive models are needed to identify areas at risk of flooding and plan future activities aimed at avoiding, or at least limiting, damage to the natural environment, buildings, and people. Geographic Information Systems (GISs), through the processing of georeferenced data, allow not only to map the coastal areas that may be submerged, but also to carry out calculations and analysis to support further studies and insights. This paper examines the impact of SLR on the coasts of Sicily, Italy, using a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the study area (resolution: 20 m x 20 m) and GIS tools. The objective is to provide medium scale maps of the potential submerged zones for the end of the 21st century (2071-2100) as resulting from SLR values supplied by the Copernicus platform and identified as the IPCC (CMIP5) RCP4.5 scenario. The bathtub method available in literature is carried out using Quantum GIS (QGIS) software version 3.28. Attention is also focused on the limits and advantages of the adopted approach. The experiments demonstrate on the one hand the versatility of the GIS tools that allow the implementation of the bathtub method, on the other the seriousness of the SLR, given the considerable extension of the areas at risk of submersion as resulting from the maps produced for Sicily coasts.