Interannual to decadal variability of the Kuroshio extension: analyzing an ensemble of global hindcasts from a dynamical system viewpoint

The Kuroshio Extension (KE) is the inertial meandering jet formed by the convergence of the Kuroshio and Oyashio currents in the Northern Pacific. It is widely mentioned in the literature that the KE variability is bimodal on interannual to decadal time scale. The nature of this low frequency variability (LFV) is still under debate; intrinsic oceanic mechanisms are known to play a fundamental role in the phenomenon but there is also evidence from observations that the KE LFV is connected with changes in broader patterns associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which is in its turn generated by the dominant decadal mode of the sea level pressure variability in the North Pacific. We investigate the respective contributions of oceanic and atmospheric drivers of the KE variability by taking advantage of the OCCIPUT 1/4° global model dataset: it consists in an ensemble of 50 ocean–sea ice hindcasts performed over the period 1960–2015 (hereafter OCCITENS), and in a one-member 330-year climatological simulation (hereafter OCCICLIM). In this context, OCCITENS simulates both the intrinsic and forced variability, while OCCICLIM simulates the "pure" intrinsic variability. We explore several features of the KE, finding analogies between the OCCICLIM and OCCITENS datasets with autonomous and non-autonomous dynamical systems respectively. This approach aims to apply concepts from the dynamical systems theory on complex and realistic ocean simulations. In this framework, the results suggest that both oceanic and atmospheric drivers control the KE LFV, and that the effect of the low-frequency atmospheric forcing reduces the phase space region explored by the system through synchronization mechanisms. The system’s intrinsic variability can be paced, and therefore clustered over the system’s pullback attractor under the effect of the time dependent forcing.